The only time you're guaranteed coloured foals is by using a homozygous tobiano mare or stallion. Horses have two copies of the gene that causes tobiano; one 'switched on' copy means the horse will be coloured itself, but may not pass the colour on; There's basically a 50/50 chance of colour every time it's bred. The law of averages means that usually if they produce a large number of offspring, used with a solid partner roughly half will be coloured and half solid colour; but that's not to say it will definitely happen.
If a horse has two copies of the gene switched on it can only ever produce foals with that colour.
Same goes for bay; on a black base, a heterozygous bay will have a 50/50 chance of bay foals, and a homozygous bay will always throw them. Bay is just complicated slughtly by the fact that a chestnt horse can carry bay with no outward sign; bay only affects black pigment, and chestnuts have no black to show the gene's work. A chestnut can even be homozygous for bay, and will never throw a black foal even when put to homozygous blacks, because they will always pass on the gene that modifies black to bay.